Tuesday, July 5, 2011

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  • abracadabra102
    01-03 07:01 PM
    If cockroaches from my house take a dump in your kitchen, don't ask me to apologize for that.

    You summed up the entire Pakistani approach to terrorism beautifully. We have a problem. You won't cleanup your house and I can't live like you (with all these cockroaches coming from your house). I am afraid I may have to burn your house down. I may lose my house as well, but that is the risk I should be taking.





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  • HawaldarNaik
    12-26 07:14 PM
    I beleive enough is enough ( after saying no for years, i am now convinced), that the only way, i repeat, the only way to put an end to this is a Full Fledged WAR....otherwise they will keep on bleeding us like 26/11.
    We all know that they are nothing but a bunch of paper tigers and will go to any extent to harm India, but now the time is up with regards India's Patience.
    By not taking this step will make us sitting ducks for the next stage of attacks that will strike our cities.....
    If Indira Gandhi was alive (quoted by Priyanka Gandhi her grand daughter), she would have...taken decisive and clear cut action by now...and given a fitting reply.....
    The whole world is backing us and watching....Can India take action against all these atrocities happening for years now....or shall we just sit back and keep putting 'pressure' (which has been going on for a month now with no corrective action from the other side).
    Also no economic relations or cricket or entertainment relations (like a entertainment major did they cut off relations)......do not give an INCH.....boy oh boy....enough is enough.......after 26/11....i truly beleive so otherwise they will come up with more sinister plots....

    Even Mahatma said, if by being non violent the opponent feels you are a coward...then stand up....and give a fitting reply (something to that effect)





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  • delax
    07-13 08:59 PM
    Can't beleive people can sound so arrogant. That's exactly some of the hispanic politicians unwilling to provide any relief to any employment based immigration. Some people think they are "superior" than others, the so called "smartest", "brightest", "highly skilled". A country like the US needs people from a diverse background. It does not need all the Phds or masters. It needs chefs, agriculture workers, doctors, nurses, business persons, all backgrounds. Can you imagine that this country only consists of Phds? That's why when arguing why EB applicants should be given relieve first and then illegals, we should not sound we are "superior". Rather we should simply state our confidence about the integrity of the legal system.

    As far as the so called "preference", how are you going to catergorize those under EB4, EB5, etc.? The so called "preference" is a myth. Otherwise, the law would only allow a "lower" perference to get a green card until all the "higher" ones get theirs. It is not the case, isn't? Rather it gives a % limit for each category.

    If you find it arrogant then so be it - you are entitled to your opinion - that still does not change the truth - please read the post below. The law is written such that the skill, training and experience requirements of EB2 are clearly superior (to use your word) to EB3. The same is the case between EB1 and EB2 - you seem to be completely blind to the fact that any EB3/EB2 change can almost as easily be applied to EB2/EB1 as well.

    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=262198#post262198
    Pasting the post in the link above:
    At the risk of differing with you and inviting unflattering comments from others, but to benefit a healthy debate, I beg to differ that spill over should go to the most retrogressed at the expense of a difference in skill, training and experience level. As you probably may know, EB2 does require a different and arguably more enhanced skill, traninig and experience level than EB3.

    If you beleive in the principle that in a land of meritocracy the higher skilled should have an easier path to immigrate then EB2 should always get a preference over EB3 regardless of country of birth so long as the ROW demand within the same category has been satisfied.

    Understand, that this definition of EB3 and EB2 is all on paper. I am not saying that all EB2 are 'smarter' than EB3 and vice versa, but the letter/intent of the law is what it is.

    Sounds harsh and heirarchical but is true. Obviously I have a vested interest in a favorable interpretation of the law and I welcome the spill over to EB2-I. This does have a flip side if you are EB3-I, but look at a few bulletins from last year/early this year where EB2-I was unavailable and EB3 still was current and/or had a cut off date for a ROW/retro country.





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  • abhisam
    07-26 04:01 PM
    UN,

    A quick question for you. So far, I havent found anything wrong with my I-485 application.

    My wife is currently on an H4 visa and is a dependent applicant on our AOS application. She was working in our native country before coming to the US. When the lawyer filled her biographic information, she did not mention her employment in India. She just filled that section as N/A. We did not care at that moment because we thought USCIS might be more concerned about my employment history, as I am the primary applicant.

    Now after reading all this, I'm a bit worried. And my question is exactly opposite of what most people are asking. Does not stating my wife's foreign employment mean fraud to USCIS? I really appreciate all help that you can extend in this regard.

    Thanks,
    abhisam



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  • puddonhead
    06-26 01:48 PM
    If you spend the rest of your life renting, the risk is 100%�you end up with nothing. I will take my chances investing my money in buying a home because its certainly better than losing 100%.

    If you buy - and take a mortgate - you end up losing (the same way you "lose" your rent)
    1. Interest you pay
    2. Property taxes you will pay forever.
    3. Maintenance you will pay forever.

    On the other hand - if you rent and,
    A. IF you pay less in rent than #1 + #2 + #3,
    B. IF you invest the remainder plus your mortgage principal amount in some other investment vehicle with superior investment returns than real estate.
    .... Then you will come out ahead renting.

    The tipping point is whether your rent equals interest + property taxes + maintenance. Based on which side is higher - either renting or buying could be good for you. I don't think there is a clear cut answer. This does not take into account the flexibility associated with renting - which is important for non-GC holders. If you assign a non-zero dollar value of $X with that flexibility, then your rent needs to be interest + tax + maintanance + $X to get to the tipping point. On the other hand, if you are not forced to save (in the form of mortgage principal payment every month) - you may just spend that money instead of investing that. If you assign a dollar value of $Y with that (probability multiplied by actual dollar value) - then the tipping point is at
    $rent = $interest + $tax + $maintenance + $X(dollar value for flexibility) - $Y(dollar value for probability of spending money instead of saving).

    Now as soon as you plug in the numbers in this equation - it will give you your tipping point and will tell you whether it is right for you to rent or to buy.

    Think about it. It is not as clear cut as you think it is. :-) Based on your earlier posts - you got an absolutely faboulous deal on your house (maybe because of your timing) and the tipping point equation would probably highly favor buying in your case. For many other (specially for those without a GC) - it may not be so clear cut.





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  • nojoke
    06-23 03:38 PM
    Here is one calculation that might give you one more reason to buy...

    This is taking into consideration bay area good school district ....


    say you are currently in a 2 bedroom paying around $1900 rent (say cupertino school district)

    you buy a townhome for around $500k putting down 20%
    so loan amount is 400k
    @ 5% instrest your annual intrest is $ 20k.
    Say 3k HOA anually...
    Property tax....as a rule of thumb, I believe (and have heard from others) whatever poperty tax you pay comes back as your mortgage intrest and property tax is deductable.
    So not taking property tax into account....your annual expense is 23k.

    now here is the nice part....
    you get 8k (or is it 7.5k ?) from FED for buying a house (first time buyer)

    If you get a real estate agent who is ready to give you 50% back on the comission you can get back around 7.5k (assuming the agent gets 3% comission)...I know those kind of agent exist for sure !!

    There is something I have heard about CA also giving you 10k for buying new homes...but I am not sure of this so will leave it out of the calculations...

    so total amount u get back....8k+ 7.5k = 15k approx..

    1st year expense = 23k
    1st year actual expense = 23-15 = 8 k

    which mean monthly rent = 8k/12 = $666 per month (it is like paying $666 rent for a 2 bedroom in cupertino school district)

    Will the property value go up ? I do not know (I wish I knew)...

    Is there a risk ? I would think yes....

    Percentage of risk ? I would think keeping in mind current prices the risk is low...

    I am not telling that you should buy or not buy....just provided one piece of the calculation....-;)

    All the best !

    All these calculations don't play out if the house price keeps dropping. It has gone down in value for the last couple of years. It will go down more until housing is affordable. Right now a million $ for a 3 bedroom in bay area is too much. It has to go down a lot and it will go down. So the question is not about rent vs owning cost. It is a question of how severe the housing price crash is going to be. One can convince themselves playing with numbers. But the fact is that the Alt-A loans are going to get hit in another year and all those shadow inventory that banks are hiding will be forced into the market eventually. By then these rent vs mortgage numbers would mean so little...



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  • unitednations
    03-26 05:29 PM
    UN,
    Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this. As always, your time is highly appreciated.

    So I assume in the Baltimore case, the 485 eventually did get approved (or if still pending, the USCIS atleast okayed the switch back to the petitioning employer despite the 140 revocation).

    And yes, I am talking about cases where the 140 was revoked for genuine ability to pay reasons and not so the underlying labor could be substituted for someone else.


    I tried looking for the baltimore case but I don't have it on this computer. You might want to search for it on immigration.com.

    That case had a lot more things in it.

    1) person never worked at the location as specified by the greencard labor
    2) person acknowledged he wasn't going to work there upon greencard approval
    3) person was claiming ac21 within same employer for different location


    Administrative appeals office; concurred that ac21 wasn't specific to geographic location and didn't have to be done with another company; it could be done within same company.

    Then AAO went another way and picked on some other issues: Other issues they picked on was information on his g-325a and his work locations. They picked onthat he didn't have h-1b's approved for those particular locations or LCA's and he was out of status. he was good on the ac21 but was out of status prior to filing 485.





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  • Macaca
    12-14 11:33 AM
    The Delta House Congress (http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110010993) The politics of futile gestures, Dec 14, 2007

    In the movie "Animal House," the fraternity brother known as Otter reacts to the Delta House's closure with the classic line, "I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part." To which Bluto, played by John Belushi, replies, "We're just the guys to do it." The movie ends by noting that Bluto becomes a Senator, so perhaps this explains the meltdown among Democrats on Capitol Hill.

    As they careen toward the end of their first year in charge, Congressional leaders seem capable of nothing but futile gestures. Yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid failed once again to get enough votes for an energy bill, having refused to remove a $21.8 billion tax increase on energy that President Bush has promised to veto in any case. Mr. Reid was vowing to try again as we went to press.

    Meanwhile, in Nancy Pelosi's House of self-inflicted pain, the Blutarsky strategy played out yesterday in one more hopeless attempt to pass a tax increase to "pay for" Alternative Minimum Tax relief. The Senate has already voted 88-5 against any such tax hike, so this House bill is dead before arrival. But Ms. Pelosi's troops are just the guys to do it anyway.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    Say what you will about Tom DeLay, at least he knew how to run the joint. Ms. Pelosi and Mr. Reid are letting their left-wing troops and interest groups run all over them, with the result that their signal achievement this year is a higher minimum wage. Considering most of their policy goals, this failure is good for the country. But the dysfunction amply shows that Democrats are attempting to govern with an agenda that is too far left even for many in their own party, never mind the country.

    Start with trying to end the war in Iraq, which Democrats claimed was their mandate from voters last November. That was a misinterpretation of their victory, which had as much to do with GOP corruption and overspending. But Democratic leaders nonetheless wasted weeks and no fewer than 63 votes trying to impose withdrawal deadlines, strategy changes, and other war-fighting micromanagement on Mr. Bush. Their only achievement has been to reinforce their image of national-security weakness for opposing the Baghdad "surge" that has been such a success. Recall Mr. Reid's memorable declaration in April that "This war is lost."

    Even today, Democrats are caught between their antiwar left, which wants more futile gestures, and Members from swing districts who want to fund the troops. Democrats have delayed funding for so long that the Pentagon is issuing furlough notices to 100,000 civilian employees so it can shuffle operations funding to keep the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan in ammunition.

    Then there's the AMT fiasco. Without action by Congress, that hated second tax system will engulf 22 million middle-class Americans next year, most of them in high-tax, largely Democratic states. Congress has already been so dilatory that the IRS has said it may have to delay tax-return processing that is supposed to start in January. But so determined are House Democrats to raise taxes on somebody, anybody, to "pay for" this relief that they are holding out for Senate Democrats to walk the tax plank with them. In the end the House will surely back down, but not before Ms. Pelosi has put her moderate Members on record as tax raisers. Bluto strikes again.

    And don't forget the warrantless wiretap program against al Qaeda that expires early next year if Congress fails to act. The Senate Intelligence Committee, which is hardly dominated by hawks, passed a bipartisan bill in October. But it is now bogged down because Judiciary Chairman Pat Leahy refuses to provide retroactive immunity to the telecom companies that cooperated with the U.S. government in the uncertain days after 9/11. The House bill is a similar bow to the ACLU, MoveOn.org and the party's antiwar left. If Republicans wanted to design a political battle that made Democrats look weak on security, they couldn't do it any better.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    We could keep calling this roll: farm subsidies that are as egregious as anything the DeLay Republicans passed, the Schip health-care bill and its budget gimmicks, eliminating secret ballots for union organizing, spending bills that keep courting vetoes because they exceed Mr. Bush's targets. On nearly every issue, Democrats have been intent not on getting something done but on making a stupid, futile gesture to please their base.

    As for Mr. Bush, one lesson is that his veto strategy has been a political and policy success. Though widely called a lame duck, he continues to dominate the debate on security and defense. He is also on the cusp of controlling spending growth far better than he ever did when Republicans controlled Congress.

    We hope GOP leaders on Capitol Hill don't give Democrats a last minute reprieve on spending in order to be able to collect their own "earmarks." Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell looked shaky on that score earlier this week. The best GOP strategy is to put the responsibility to govern squarely on the Democratic majority, and support Mr. Bush's vetoes as a tool for improving policy. If Democrats keep following Delta House rules, Republicans will be back in the majority sooner than they ever imagined.



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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-06 06:30 PM
    Wish I could think so quickly.

    A man boarded a plane with 6 kids. After they got settled in their seats a woman sitting across the aisle from him leaned over to him and asked,

    'Are all of those kids yours?'

    He replied, 'No. I work for a condom company. These are customer complaints.'





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  • obviously
    08-05 09:41 PM
    started by a guy/gal who possibly spent the formative years of his/her life buried in text books because mama/papa wanted him/her to crack the JEE and get into IIT... possibly feted with flowers on his/her trip to the US...after lying on the F1 visa interview about intent to immigrate...and now seeking to raise a hue and cry because the protectionist sense of entitlement is being challenged by law abiding immigrants...someone that is obviously closeted in perspective...

    obviously, a spoilt child crying sour grapes... the admins did not sweep anything under the carpet... they let this thread grow to 13 pages! obviously, you are someone that is unhappy with a lot of things. stop hurting yourself. you might invite a myocardial infraction given the rate at which you seem to be stressing out... there is no EB3 (majority) vs. EB3 (minority) issue... stop raking up more BS... enough is enough... someone has to have the b*lls to tell you that the world is bigger than you and your inflated sense of self worth and entitlement...got it?

    i still dont see the EB2 job posting for this #1 guy/gal in a #2 company... what a #3 (third rate :)) poster with a #4 (fourth degree) threat that started this all... i can help your company find a qualified US citizen for YOUR EXACT JOB... go ahead, do post that... scared to do that? :)... obviously you are!!!! Ha! Ha! Ha!

    PM me and I can help your company. No, I am not a body shopper and wont take commissions, thank you. Just thought I'd help a US company not have to deal with this immigration BS, so they can let you go and hire a US citizen instead. Seriously, I call that social service.

    While I am at it, I can also contact special interest groups from the ACLU to Gay/Lesbian Groups to Veteran Groups to find out why their members dont get the kind of protected 'lines' that EB2's such as you have! After all, if EB2 is such a protected category, why not have other protections for other groups that need such protections? We can go ahead and divide the world into pieces as small as our mind... :D

    My last post for this obvious loser... mama/papa would be proud, indeed :D... sad, sorry state of reality that we call the 'high skilled immigration cause' ...

    While you are ranting and raving, dont forget to get back to basics... and read my earlier threads educating you on the basics of EB immigration and why the current interfiling / porting is a valid practice...

    Go ahead, rant, rave... enjoy your stress... :D

    BTW: I have more qualifications and success than people have letters in their long names :)... so, I know a little bit about success :D... and I didnt get it by throwing others under the bus... !



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  • RNGC
    10-01 06:33 PM
    I am the only employee working for my H1 sponsoring company for past 9 years! I always worked for huge clients and everyplace I worked, I was offered a full time job, but my immigration status prevented from taking those offers. My H1 sponsoring company have been benefitting all these years because of the broken legal immigration system and I am just working as hard as I can but someone else (my H1 sponsoring company) benefits from that.

    We may need to hold another massive rally in DC to highlight our cause.





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  • Legal
    08-08 07:33 PM
    Sajan Chale Sasural : Computer professional coming to US.

    1942 a Love story : Sticking to one company for more than a year.

    Dil to Pagal Hai : Staying in India, dreaming of US.

    Sapnay : Green card.

    Sadma : Rejected H-1(B) Visa.

    Khalnayak : Bodyshoppers.

    Deewana Mastana : Project Manager - Team Leader.

    Beta : Home Phone bill exceeding $400pm.

    Rakhwala : Project Manager.

    Mr. Bechara : Computer professional in Singapore.

    Zanjeer : Company bond.

    Himmatwala : Breaking company bond.

    Tohfa : H-4 Visa for your Wife.

    Mawaali : Before coming to US.

    Raju Ban Gaya Gentleman : Once you are in US.:D

    Chaudhvin ka Chand : Assembly programmer.

    Sahib Bibi aur Ghulam : Client, your company and you.

    Shehanshah : Bill Gates.

    Admi Sadak Ka : Jumping from company to company.

    Dayawan : Company paying full salary in bench

    Anari : Year2000 programmer.

    Phool Aur Kaanten : Microsoft - IBM.

    Aaj Ka Gunda Raaj : Microsoft Monopoly in IT market.

    Maharaja : Doctors who came to US in 70's

    Hairaan : Non-Computer professionals on seeing computer professional's pay-check.
    Hum Aapke Hain Koun : Illegal Immigrants in US
    Aur Pyar Ho Gaya : After staying in US for a Year.
    Pardes : India after 2 Years.
    Daud : Coming to US.
    Rangeela : After getting Green Card.
    Bahaar Aane Tak : Time period between Green Card and Citizenship.
    Desh Premee : Going back to India for good
    Farz : Going to India every year.
    Pyaasa : Longing for a Visa.
    Agneepath : Going to Madras Consulate for getting a Visa.:p
    Jo Jeeta Wohi Sikandar : After coming from consulate with a Visa.
    Bud Naseeb : Not getting a Visa
    Himalaya Putra : Firmly asking for $70k from India
    Elan-E-Jung : Asking for increment
    Gupt : Agreement of Programmer with number of consultants
    . Zakmee : After getting rejected twice for a Visa.
    Swarg Se Sundar : on landing in US.
    Ab Kya Hoga? : Applied for Green Card too late.
    Jallad : INS People.
    Kranti : Increase H-1 quota.
    Main Khiladi Tu Anari : You and Immigration Officer.



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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-22 03:08 PM
    One day, a teacher, a garbage collector, and a lawyer all died and went to heaven.

    St. Peter was there, having a bad day because heaven was getting crowded. When they got to the gate, St. Peter informed them that there would be a test to get into Heaven: They each had to answer a single question.

    To the teacher, he said, "What was the name of the ship that crashed into an iceberg and sunk with all its passengers?"

    The teacher thought for a second, and then replied: "That would have been the Titanic, right?" St. Peter let him through the gate.

    Next, St. Peter turned to the garbage man, and figuring that heaven didn't really need all the stink that this guy would bring in, decided to make the question a little harder. "How many people died on the ship?"

    The garbage man guessed 1228, to which St. Peter said, "That happens to be right. Go ahead."

    St. Peter then turned to the lawyer. "What were their names?"





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  • vdixit
    03-24 04:31 PM
    Bought a house, sold it. Changed jobs, moved cities, planning to buy a new house.
    I dont think renting (flushing money down the landlords toilet) is a wise idea if you plan to live in this country for a long time.
    Go for it. PLan these things according to your family's needs.
    Cheers.



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  • Marphad
    12-18 12:10 PM
    Well, all of the above were done to Kashmiri Pandits by terrorists. Yet we don't find any terrorists among the Pandits, who are the real victims of the Kashmir situation.

    Stop trying to find excuses for terrorism. Stop this perverted sympathy for terrorists.

    Well said!





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  • mariner5555
    03-26 04:19 PM
    Good points. If I recall correctly baby boomers started retiring 2-3 years ago. With economy going south, I wonder how many of them are in financial trouble. Also, they are growing older and some of them dying. You have to believe this will add to the supply. you bet - This is from Jubak at MSN money ..

    ---
    That initial hole was largely demographic. The number of Americans 65 and older is projected to increase to 69.4 million in 2030 from 35.5 million in 2000, the Census Bureau says. That's not entirely bad news -- much of the increase comes from Americans living longer -- but it is a problem if you're trying to figure out how to pay for all those people to retire.

    Because the baby-boom generation is so much bigger than succeeding generations, the ratio of people in the retirement years, 65 and older, to those in the working years, 20 to 64, will rise from 20.6% in 2005 to 35.5% in 2030, according to the Census Bureau.

    For most people, the house they live in is their biggest retirement asset. In retirement, people cash in on the value of their homes by selling and then buying less expensive houses, renting or moving in with the kids. More people are also using reverse mortgages to extract equity from their homes in retirement.
    In a Feb. 28 conference call, mortgage buyer Fannie Mae (FNMN, news, msgs) said it expected the real-estate market to bottom in 2009 after a total drop of 15% to 20%. That would produce a loss of roughly $3 trillion to $4 trillion.



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  • sanju
    04-07 11:55 AM
    Like me, there may be many IV members who work at a place where there are small fraction of employees on H1. As an example, where I work, out of 70 employees 3 employees are on H1b, including myself. With this proposed bill, each such employer runs into the risk of being picked up for investigations and audits. If the employers have to go through the hassle and inconvenience of federal investigations from two federal agencies, I am not sure how many employers will continue to keep employees on H1. So this bill will not just hurt the consulting company employees, but it could potentially cause lot of problems for other employers too.





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  • vdixit
    03-24 04:31 PM
    Bought a house, sold it. Changed jobs, moved cities, planning to buy a new house.
    I dont think renting (flushing money down the landlords toilet) is a wise idea if you plan to live in this country for a long time.
    Go for it. PLan these things according to your family's needs.
    Cheers.





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  • waitnwatch
    08-05 07:28 PM
    I had tried to frame the debate in my previous post which is quoted below. Never received as much as a yay or nay from anyone. On the other hand there are enough folks with a lot of bluster and rhetoric to keep the storm in the teacup going.

    It should be obvious that the USCIS doesn't make changes because we spit fire on this forum.

    That is exactly why we would be better of trying to use this forum for honing our arguments instead of punching imaginary bags and getting all riled up.

    This is probably my last post on this topic but I'll sure be visiting to enjoy all the shouting and screaming!

    OP is long gone. Your post is full of big brave words and no substance. If you want to have a discussion and demonstrate your "intellect", please make some rational arguments and back them up. There is no lawsuit discussion here, just a debate on the merits of BS+5 PD porting

    Here's the logic behind this debate as I see it (not that there is much logic in the way the immigration laws/rules are framed)

    A person with a Master's or a PhD has spent 2-3 or 5-6 years respectively to get their degrees but do not get a priority date reflecting that time spent on acquiring the qualifications.

    On the other hand a person with a bachelors who gets 5 years experience can port their priority date while moving from EB3 to EB2 thereby getting credit for time spent.

    Porting is law while the Bachelor+5 is due to some memo. This memo does not take into consideration the above inconsistency and therefore this debate.

    I hope this sounds logical to atleast some of you folks.





    satishku_2000
    05-16 06:04 PM
    It is very simple -- the 'consulting on the bench' business is ILLEGAL. You can have any opinion on it you wan't, but the bottom line is it is against the law. If you can't meet the legal requirements, you shouldn't be here in the first place.

    And what do you think about the skilled and HONEST people in this world, finding a job and having an H-1B petition submitted on their behalf, only to see all the H-1Bs go in a single day due to the consultants? My sympathy goes to these people instead of any 'consultant'.

    It is amazing that people don't seem to grasp the concept of something being ILLEGAL, and instead seem to rely on some self-perceived logic as to what they can and can't do. Let us focus on the illegal clogging of the system and restore it to the otherwise great visa program it was meant to be.


    Title explains it all ... its not illegal to work parttime on H1b...If some employer does not pay on bench , employee can always goto DOL...





    hiralal
    06-08 07:24 AM
    similar arguments and predictions by different analysts
    ------------------------------
    And here's Whitney and Glenn's take on the future of house prices:

    We think housing prices will reach fair value/trend line, down 40% from the peak based on the
    S&P/Case-Shiller national (not 20-city) index, which implies a 5-10% further decline from where
    prices where as of the end of Q1 2009. It’s almost certain that prices will reach these levels.

    • The key question is whether housing prices will go crashing through the trend line and fall well below fair value. Unfortunately, this is very likely.

    In the long-term, housing prices will likely settle around fair value, but in the short-term prices will be driven both by psychology as well as supply and demand. The trends in both are very unfavorable.

    – Regarding the former, national home prices have declined for 33 consecutive months since their peak in July 2006 through April 2009 and there’s no end in sight, so this makes buyers reluctant – even when the price appears cheap – and sellers desperate.

    – Regarding the latter, there is a huge mismatch between supply and demand, due largely to the tsunami of foreclosures. In March 2009, distressed sales accounted for just over 50% of all existing home sales nationwide – and more than 57% in California. In addition, the “shadow” inventory of foreclosed homes already likely exceeds one year and there will be millions more foreclosures over the next few years, creating a large overhang of excess supply that will likely cause prices to overshoot on the downside, as they are already doing in California.

    • Therefore, we expect housing prices to decline 45-50% from the peak, bottoming in mid-2010

    • We are also quite certain that wherever prices bottom, there will be no quick rebound

    • There’s too much inventory to work off quickly, especially in light of the millions of foreclosures
    over the next few years

    • While foreclosure sales are booming in many areas, regular sales by homeowners have plunged,
    in part because people usually can’t sell when they’re underwater on their mortgage and in part
    due to human psychology: people naturally anchor on the price they paid or what something was
    worth in the past and are reluctant to sell below this level. We suspect that there are millions of
    homeowners like this who will emerge as sellers at the first sign of a rebound in home prices

    • Finally, we don’t think the economy is likely to provide a tailwind, as we expect it to contract the
    rest of 2009, stagnate in 2010, and only then grow tepidly for some time thereafter.



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